News & Investment Updates From Fulcrum Wealth Advisors
News
2025’s Stock Market Shows the Danger in Predictions
“The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” This classic line from investing icon Warren Buffett constantly reverberates through the minds of the team at Fulcrum Wealth Advisors. But it reached a crescendo earlier this year as we – and you – witnessed the chaotically turbulent start to 2025.
If we were to summarize that same Buffett quote in our own words, it would be this: Predictions can be dangerous. When investors base their financial decisions on the predictions of “experts,” they put roots into sandy ground because analysts and economists actually have no idea what is going to happen. Plus, mixing ego with intellect in the form of a prediction can be a toxic brew for investors who dare follow the forecaster down that path. The future is unknowable!
Investment Update
Forecasts Have Missed the Mark, Our Discipline Has Not
Every June, we find ourselves doing the same thing: reviewing the first half of the year and comparing reality to expectations. Not because we believe predictions drive portfolios, but because the gap between what people thought would happen and what actually happened is often the most instructive part of the investing process.
Take small caps, international stocks, or interest rates — all areas where prevailing forecasts heading into 2025 have missed the mark.
Although we think they can be foolish, this isn’t necessarily a critique of the forecasts themselves. It’s a reminder that the most important thing in investing isn’t being right — it’s about having a process and being prepared regardless of what happens.
That’s why at Fulcrum Wealth Advisors, we design systems that can adapt to shifting conditions without relying on foresight. When small caps looked poised for a breakout, our models stayed cautious. When international equities still seemed out of favor, our systematic investing process told us to lean in.
In this month’s Note, we reflect on what’s unfolded so far in 2025 — not to pat ourselves on the back or call out misplaced predictions, but to reinforce the value of a systematic, long-term mindset in a world that keeps trying to throw curveballs.
But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for July.
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